{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "provenanceSchemaVersion": 1,
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-04T23:09:29.624Z",
  "artifactRevision": {
    "kind": "git-worktree-artifact-set",
    "baseCommit": "6876004069580cebb1381541eb52092a5c4e88bc",
    "sourceDigest": "b323ada692c7cc95e07019d277c177eca587d0fa24bb7f914a99b119c61441f5",
    "modelRevision": null,
    "modelRevisionStatus": {
      "status": "not_formally_versioned",
      "reason": "Kode memberi label revisi metode per horizon, tetapi tidak menetapkan versi model semantik tunggal."
    },
    "note": "Revisi ini mengidentifikasi artefak HTML dan CSS saat manifest dibuat; ini bukan versi model."
  },
  "provenance": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "overallStatus": "partial_verified",
    "generatorRevision": {
      "kind": "git-commit",
      "value": "eaa5655e9fc6f9a1986cb34b2ee366562695f21d",
      "status": "verified_local_evidence"
    },
    "normalizedHistorySha256": "03052a9ffac8598cdd71d167e5ec3777966fcad42b4baf0772c45d871b68cbf3",
    "normalizedHistoryStatus": "verified_local_evidence",
    "sourceUrls": [
      "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/BTC-USD",
      "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ETH-USD",
      "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily",
      "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/ethereum/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily"
    ],
    "sourceUrlsStatus": {
      "status": "partial_verified",
      "reason": "Endpoint publik dan snapshot responsnya terverifikasi, tetapi satu input riwayat awal dikecualikan dari manifest publik sesuai kebijakan publikasi. Aritmetikanya supaya tidak ada celah yang perlu ditebak pembaca: riwayat BTC yang dipakai model 6.195 hari sejak 2009-10-05, dan 4.387 hari di antaranya berasal dari Yahoo Finance sejak 2014-09-17; sisa 1.808 hari sebelum itu datang dari input awal yang dikecualikan. Halaman laporan menyebut angka 6.195 karena itulah yang masuk model."
    },
    "sourceSnapshots": [
      {
        "asset": "btc",
        "provider": "Yahoo Finance",
        "canonicalUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/BTC-USD",
        "responseSha256": "884ff3a5dc9c6c0a5a7191f5c03a5699594d04e8f1d8d0665e5a8a951c0cbb12",
        "observedRange": {
          "start": "2014-09-17",
          "end": "2026-09-20"
        },
        "observedPointCount": 4387,
        "role": "daily-history"
      },
      {
        "asset": "eth",
        "provider": "Yahoo Finance",
        "canonicalUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ETH-USD",
        "responseSha256": "f74188fef5e19716972af4df52b340a6ad565da3bd39084b2629706720e30cff",
        "observedRange": {
          "start": "2017-11-09",
          "end": "2026-09-20"
        },
        "observedPointCount": 3238,
        "role": "daily-history"
      },
      {
        "asset": "btc",
        "provider": "CoinGecko",
        "canonicalUrl": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily",
        "responseSha256": "36804e1dde657064eaffd2b98227dee9d9b888abb407c79984d5f19f594ec013",
        "observedRange": {
          "start": "2025-09-21",
          "end": "2026-09-20"
        },
        "observedPointCount": 366,
        "role": "cross-check-and-latest-day"
      },
      {
        "asset": "eth",
        "provider": "CoinGecko",
        "canonicalUrl": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/ethereum/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily",
        "responseSha256": "668e9688593ada83ca8044b3780c021ce340e68094d3ba4a8dc5e45ea6ff5b16",
        "observedRange": {
          "start": "2025-09-21",
          "end": "2026-09-20"
        },
        "observedPointCount": 366,
        "role": "cross-check-and-latest-day"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotsStatus": "verified_local_evidence",
    "retrievalTimestamp": null,
    "retrievalTimestampStatus": {
      "status": "not_recorded_in_bound_artifact",
      "reason": "Pipeline asli tidak menulis waktu pengambilan ke artefak atau metadata yang terikat; tanggal akhir data terverifikasi secara terpisah melalui asOf dan observedRange."
    },
    "modelVersion": null,
    "modelVersionStatus": {
      "status": "not_formally_versioned",
      "reason": "Kode memberi label revisi metode per horizon, tetapi tidak menetapkan versi model semantik tunggal."
    },
    "reproducibility": {
      "status": "partial",
      "reason": "Revision generator, parameter metode, hash payload, snapshot respons publik, dan hash riwayat ternormalisasi terikat; badan respons mentah serta input yang dikecualikan kebijakan publikasi tidak didistribusikan bersama artefak publik."
    }
  },
  "reports": [
    {
      "id": "kipas-365-hari",
      "artifactPath": "public/prediksi/kipas-365-hari.html",
      "embeddedGlobal": "window.__DATA__",
      "sha256": "bd4275b369200b37c5c7cec452860494490950c8ff79a605cabb071bd9596996",
      "asOf": "2026-09-20",
      "historyRange": {
        "start": "2025-03-22",
        "end": "2026-09-20"
      },
      "historySampleCount": 548,
      "forecastRange": {
        "start": "2026-09-21",
        "end": "2027-09-20"
      },
      "cadenceDays": 1,
      "sampleCount": 365,
      "testMethod": "Seluruh pilihan (titik tengah, lebar pita, peta kalibrasi peluang) diambil hanya dari titik awal yang seluruh jendela targetnya berakhir sebelum 2021; 115 titik awal 2021 ke atas hanya menilai. Rapor dipecah per rentang hari dan per ekor, karena rata-rata 365 hari menyembunyikan cacat di ujung.",
      "probabilityBand": true,
      "limitations": [
        "Titik awal uji saling tumpang-tindih; 115 titik membentang 1.710 hari, setara kira-kira 4,7 jendela independen.",
        "Titik tengah BTC setara peramal naif di 30 hari pertama; nilai kipas ada pada lebar pitanya.",
        "Titik tengah ETH adalah harga pada snapshot, karena tidak satu pun komponen model mengalahkannya.",
        "Sisi bawah pita ETH di hari 181 sampai 365 masih kurang lebar.",
        "Data uji sudah dilihat berkali-kali, jadi ambang gerbang adalah pagar kewarasan, bukan bukti kalibrasi.",
        "Model tidak memuat kejadian dunia luar."
      ],
      "terminalQuantiles": {
        "btc": {
          "p5": 58438.45,
          "p10": 66159.02,
          "p25": 80825.82,
          "p50": 100469.76,
          "p75": 125378.1,
          "p90": 152657.39,
          "p95": 171315.01
        },
        "eth": {
          "p5": 1293.14,
          "p10": 1513.36,
          "p25": 1978.95,
          "p50": 2643,
          "p75": 3520.19,
          "p90": 4568.94,
          "p95": 5335.65
        }
      },
      "validation": {
        "isoDatesStrictlyAscending": true,
        "forecastStartsOneDayAfterHistory": true,
        "alignedArrayLengths": true,
        "finitePositiveOrderedQuantiles": true,
        "visibleTerminalTableMatchesEmbeddedEndpoint": true
      },
      "provenance": {
        "overallStatus": "partial_verified",
        "embeddedPayloadSha256": "434c8b9ffdba2f198867a093d6f457c7ae32e138a25aeb23f3008e7cd5e0978d",
        "embeddedPayloadStatus": "verified",
        "methodRevision": {
          "value": "construction-v3-anchored",
          "status": "verified_from_generator_revision"
        },
        "methodInputs": {
          "horizonDays": 365,
          "assets": [
            "btc",
            "eth"
          ],
          "quoteCurrency": "usd",
          "historyCadenceDays": 1,
          "centerSelection": "chosen-on-training-origins-only",
          "centerComponents": {
            "btc": [
              "anchored-power-law",
              "halving-cycle-analog",
              "block-bootstrap-median"
            ],
            "eth": [
              "last-price-times-median-historical-return"
            ]
          },
          "anchoring": "power-law residual decays as AR(1); phi estimated per origin from data up to that origin",
          "cycleDampingLambda": 0.55,
          "uncertainty": {
            "method": "moving-block-bootstrap",
            "paths": 40000,
            "blockDays": 30,
            "lookbackYears": 8,
            "seed": 7,
            "quantiles": [
              5,
              10,
              25,
              50,
              75,
              90,
              95
            ],
            "widthScaleByHorizon": {
              "1-30": 0.9,
              "31-90": 0.7,
              "91-180": 0.6,
              "181-365": 0.5
            },
            "widthScaleSelection": "chosen-on-training-origins-only; widest within 3 points of best"
          },
          "probabilityCalibration": {
            "method": "isotonic map fitted on training origins, clipped to 0.05-0.95",
            "gate": "published only if mean forecast within 10 points of realised frequency on held-out origins, at three origin-grid offsets",
            "bucketGate": "publishing bucket must hold at least 5 realised events",
            "publishedEvents": []
          },
          "walkForwardCalibration": {
            "correction": "smoothed pointwise-median-log-residual, applied only when training origins span at least two calendar years",
            "originStepDays": 15,
            "btcStart": "2016-01-01",
            "ethStart": "2019-01-01",
            "protocol": "purged-target-window-v2"
          }
        },
        "methodInputsStatus": "verified_from_generator_revision"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "peta-siklus-2030",
      "artifactPath": "public/prediksi/peta-siklus-2030.html",
      "embeddedGlobal": "window.__D30__",
      "sha256": "2ff839b77bb0ffea037485dd28abaffad733b5b11ae2a6176e12a9e43133dc2f",
      "asOf": "2026-09-20",
      "historyRange": {
        "start": "2025-08-17",
        "end": "2026-09-20"
      },
      "historySampleCount": 400,
      "forecastRange": {
        "start": "2026-09-21",
        "end": "2031-01-22"
      },
      "cadenceDays": 3,
      "sampleCount": 529,
      "testMethod": "Tahun pertama mewarisi pengujian laporan 365 hari. Kaki jauh dinilai pada jendela yang saling tumpang-tindih; di horizon ini tidak ada pemisahan luar-sampel yang sah, dan cakupan luar-sampel dilaporkan berdampingan dengan cakupan dalam-sampel.",
      "probabilityBand": false,
      "limitations": [
        "Tidak ada pemisahan luar-sampel yang sah di horizon ini; konstanta ditala pada data yang sama dengan yang menilainya.",
        "Kira-kira 2.2 jendela independen; pita setelah tahun pertama bukan pita peluang.",
        "Cakupan luar-sampel kaki jauh dihitung dari 17 titik awal saja.",
        "Titik tengah ujung jauh peka terhadap bahan penyusunnya; rentang kepekaannya tercatat di resi.",
        "Jalur ETH setelah hari ke-365 adalah ilustrasi yang mengikuti bentuk Bitcoin.",
        "Irama empat tahunan berdiri di atas tiga siklus; puncak 2013 jatuh jauh dari tiga yang lain."
      ],
      "terminalQuantiles": {
        "btc": {
          "p5": 86968.42,
          "p10": 108292.96,
          "p25": 151297.46,
          "p50": 218484.52,
          "p75": 318857.67,
          "p90": 440492.1,
          "p95": 533824.49
        },
        "eth": {
          "p5": 1705.03,
          "p10": 2252.55,
          "p25": 3525.61,
          "p50": 5747.55,
          "p75": 9374.17,
          "p90": 14385.38,
          "p95": 18630.24
        }
      },
      "validation": {
        "isoDatesStrictlyAscending": true,
        "forecastStartsOneDayAfterHistory": true,
        "alignedArrayLengths": true,
        "finitePositiveOrderedQuantiles": true,
        "visibleTerminalTableMatchesEmbeddedEndpoint": true
      },
      "provenance": {
        "overallStatus": "partial_verified",
        "embeddedPayloadSha256": "5aade749c4cddb0244f9e58158f37d2fad1de31271963f84206a5d4c80881a86",
        "embeddedPayloadStatus": "verified",
        "methodRevision": {
          "value": "long-horizon-v3-spliced",
          "status": "verified_from_generator_revision"
        },
        "methodInputs": {
          "horizonDays": 1586,
          "assets": [
            "btc",
            "eth"
          ],
          "quoteCurrency": "usd",
          "historyCadenceDays": 1,
          "firstYear": "identical to the 365-day report; one date, one answer",
          "splice": "long-horizon shape joined at day 365; level and width gaps decay with the same AR(1) phi",
          "centerComponents": [
            "anchored-power-law",
            "smoothed-halving-cycle-analog"
          ],
          "cycleDampingLambda": 0.55,
          "biasCalibration": {
            "correction": "smoothed pointwise-median-log-residual",
            "originStart": "2013-01-01",
            "originStepDays": 30,
            "calibrationVectorSha256": "e5cfcbf0f8b9f7ced6a8d45c95f4cf13a25326934ccfe570c10c43bd331b2b42"
          },
          "uncertainty": {
            "method": "drift-removed-moving-block-bootstrap",
            "paths": 8000,
            "blockDays": 30,
            "lookbackYears": 8,
            "seed": 11,
            "logSpreadScaleByRange": {
              "366-730": 0.5,
              "731-1586": 0.4
            },
            "floor": 0.4,
            "quantiles": [
              5,
              10,
              25,
              50,
              75,
              90,
              95
            ]
          },
          "ethFarLeg": "illustration that follows the Bitcoin shape after day 365"
        },
        "methodInputsStatus": "verified_from_generator_revision"
      }
    }
  ],
  "stylesheets": [
    {
      "artifactPath": "public/evora-document-motion.css",
      "sha256": "ce74264b57be8efafe74a5a4f6ae6686c2b07c8f173ab4429caed70bb0d1208e"
    },
    {
      "artifactPath": "public/prediksi/kipas-365-hari.css",
      "sha256": "bd09e845667a6896010a557992044ea005e2e16b3219bae2345b341043bdf8ac"
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    {
      "artifactPath": "public/prediksi/peta-siklus-2030.css",
      "sha256": "f5771c71ece024b0dada97f9ba9fed5989291e171af644909cdd1f9842e85486"
    },
    {
      "artifactPath": "public/prediksi/manifest.css",
      "sha256": "4a3d618200cb7703c18162725784023981ed9c97d6f2ff8d739d12c4ae837102"
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}